According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −24.4 MtCO₂e annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −30.7 MtCO₂e per year.
Current value:−30.7 MtCO₂e p.a.
Target path:−24.4 MtCO₂e p.a.
=126 %
Category
Emission reduction
Sector
Overall system
Share of renewables in final energy
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 1.27 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.92 %-point per year.
Current value:0.92 %-point p.a.
Target path:1.27 %-point p.a.
=73 %
Category
Renewable ramp-up
Sector
Overall system
Share of electricity in final energy
far too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.67 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.04 %-point per year.
Current value:0.04 %-point p.a.
Target path:0.67 %-point p.a.
=6.0 %
Category
Electrification
Sector
Overall system
Annual final energy demand
on track
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −28.7 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −41.5 TWh per year.
Current value:−41.5 TWh p.a.
Target path:−28.7 TWh p.a.
=145 %
Category
Efficiency and lifestyle
Sector
Overall system
Annual natural gas demand
on track
One-off effect
Energy crisis
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −26.1 PJ annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −141.7 PJ per year.
Current value:−141.7 PJ p.a.
Target path:−26.1 PJ p.a.
=543 %
Category
Fossil phase-out
Sector
Overall system
Annual coal demand
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −115 PJ annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −105 PJ per year.
Current value:−105 PJ p.a.
Target path:−115 PJ p.a.
=91 %
Category
Fossil phase-out
Sector
Overall system
Annual oil demand
on track
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −77 PJ annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −172 PJ per year.
Current value:−172 PJ p.a.
Target path:−77 PJ p.a.
=223 %
Category
Fossil phase-out
Sector
Overall system
Annual demand for fossil fuels
on track
One-off effect
Energy crisis
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −245 PJ annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −423 PJ per year.
Current value:−423 PJ p.a.
Target path:−245 PJ p.a.
=173 %
Category
Fossil phase-out
Sector
Overall system
Annual GHG emissions of the energy industry
on track
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −11.2 MtCO₂e annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −13.1 MtCO₂e per year.
Current value:−13.1 MtCO₂e p.a.
Target path:−11.2 MtCO₂e p.a.
=117 %
Category
Emission reduction
Sector
Energy industry
Emissions factor power generation
far too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −27.6 gCO₂/kWh annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −6.1 gCO₂/kWh per year.
Current value:−6.1 gCO₂/kWh p.a.
Target path:−27.6 gCO₂/kWh p.a.
=22.0 %
Category
Emission reduction
Sector
Energy industry
Installed capacity offshore wind
far too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.72 GW annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 0.23 GW per year.
Current value:0.23 GW p.a.
Target path:0.72 GW p.a.
=31.5 %
Category
Renewable ramp-up
Sector
Energy industry
Installed capacity onshore wind
far too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 4.75 GW annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 1.96 GW per year.
Current value:1.96 GW p.a.
Target path:4.75 GW p.a.
=41.2 %
Category
Renewable ramp-up
Sector
Energy industry
Installed capacity photovoltaics
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 9.7 GW annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 8.3 GW per year.
Current value:8.3 GW p.a.
Target path:9.7 GW p.a.
=86 %
Category
Renewable ramp-up
Sector
Energy industry
Renewables in power generation
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 4.6 %-point annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 3.4 %-point per year.
Current value:3.4 %-point p.a.
Target path:4.6 %-point p.a.
=75 %
Category
Renewable ramp-up
Sector
Energy industry
Annual fossil power generation
on track
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −8.2 TWh annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −13.1 TWh per year.
Current value:−13.1 TWh p.a.
Target path:−8.2 TWh p.a.
=160 %
Category
Fossil phase-out
Sector
Energy industry
Project pipeline H₂-Electrolizer
far too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 556 MWel annually from 2019 to 2026. In fact, the planned change was 75 MWel per year.
Current value:75 MWel p.a.
Target path:556 MWel p.a.
=13.6 %
Category
Infrastructure
Sector
Energy industry
Annual GHG emissions of the transport sector
on track
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −4.8 MtCO₂e annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −4.7 MtCO₂e per year.
Current value:−4.7 MtCO₂e p.a.
Target path:−4.8 MtCO₂e p.a.
=97 %
Category
Emission reduction
Sector
Transport
Annual final energy demand of the transport sector
too slow
One-off effect
Pandemic
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −34.8 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −19.3 TWh per year.
Current value:−19.3 TWh p.a.
Target path:−34.8 TWh p.a.
=56 %
Category
Efficiency and lifestyle
Sector
Transport
Share of renewables in transport
far too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.82 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.36 %-point per year.
Current value:0.36 %-point p.a.
Target path:0.82 %-point p.a.
=43.7 %
Category
Renewable ramp-up
Sector
Transport
Share of all-electric cars in new registrations
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 5.3 %-point annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 4.2 %-point per year.
Current value:4.2 %-point p.a.
Target path:5.3 %-point p.a.
=79 %
Category
Electrification
Sector
Transport
All-electric car fleet
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.44 millions annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 0.32 millions per year.
Current value:0.32 millions p.a.
Target path:0.44 millions p.a.
=72 %
Category
Electrification
Sector
Transport
Share of all-electric trucks in new registrations
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 1.57 %-point annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 1.20 %-point per year.
Current value:1.20 %-point p.a.
Target path:1.57 %-point p.a.
=76 %
Category
Electrification
Sector
Transport
Electricity share in transports final energy demand
far too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.32 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.12 %-point per year.
Current value:0.12 %-point p.a.
Target path:0.32 %-point p.a.
=38.1 %
Category
Electrification
Sector
Transport
Share of cars with combustion engine
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −7.6 %-point annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −4.2 %-point per year.
Current value:−4.2 %-point p.a.
Target path:−7.6 %-point p.a.
=55 %
Category
Fossil phase-out
Sector
Transport
Annual gasoline and diesel demand
too slow
One-off effect
Pandemic
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −18.4 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −16.6 TWh per year.
Current value:−16.6 TWh p.a.
Target path:−18.4 TWh p.a.
=90 %
Category
Fossil phase-out
Sector
Transport
Share of public transport
step back
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.05 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −0.43 %-point per year.
Current value:−0.43 %-point p.a.
Target path:0.05 %-point p.a.
=−800 %
Category
Efficiency and lifestyle
Sector
Transport
Share of individual transport
step back
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −0.17 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.13 %-point per year.
Current value:0.13 %-point p.a.
Target path:−0.17 %-point p.a.
=−73 %
Category
Efficiency and lifestyle
Sector
Transport
Annual GHG emissions of the buildings sector
on track
One-off effect
Energy crisis
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −4.2 MtCO₂e annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −5.0 MtCO₂e per year.
Current value:−5.0 MtCO₂e p.a.
Target path:−4.2 MtCO₂e p.a.
=119 %
Category
Emission reduction
Sector
Buildings
Emissions intensity of buildings
too slow
One-off effect
Energy crisis
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −1.24 kgCO₂/m² annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −1.05 kgCO₂/m² per year.
Current value:−1.05 kgCO₂/m² p.a.
Target path:−1.24 kgCO₂/m² p.a.
=84 %
Category
Emission reduction
Sector
Buildings
Annual final energy demand of buildings
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −18.9 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −12.1 TWh per year.
Current value:−12.1 TWh p.a.
Target path:−18.9 TWh p.a.
=64 %
Category
Efficiency and lifestyle
Sector
Buildings
Share of renewables in the buildings sector
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 1.31 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 1.19 %-point per year.
Current value:1.19 %-point p.a.
Target path:1.31 %-point p.a.
=91 %
Category
Renewable ramp-up
Sector
Buildings
Heat pump sales per year
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 84 thousands annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 67 thousands per year.
Current value:67 thousands p.a.
Target path:84 thousands p.a.
=80 %
Category
Electrification
Sector
Buildings
Heat pumps installed
on track
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.23 millions annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 0.22 millions per year.
Current value:0.22 millions p.a.
Target path:0.23 millions p.a.
=98 %
Category
Electrification
Sector
Buildings
Electricity share in buildings final energy demand
far too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.37 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.05 %-point per year.
Current value:0.05 %-point p.a.
Target path:0.37 %-point p.a.
=12.6 %
Category
Electrification
Sector
Buildings
Oil and gas boiler sales per year
step back
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −56 thousands annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 66 thousands per year.
Current value:66 thousands p.a.
Target path:−56 thousands p.a.
=−117 %
Category
Fossil phase-out
Sector
Buildings
Annual oil, coal, and gas demand in the buildings sector
too slow
One-off effect
Energy crisis
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −18.4 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −14.3 TWh per year.
Current value:−14.3 TWh p.a.
Target path:−18.4 TWh p.a.
=78 %
Category
Fossil phase-out
Sector
Buildings
Share of fossil energy in buildings
too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −1.31 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −1.19 %-point per year.
Current value:−1.19 %-point p.a.
Target path:−1.31 %-point p.a.
=91 %
Category
Fossil phase-out
Sector
Buildings
Energy intensity of buildings
far too slow
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −11.2 MJ/m² annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −3.2 MJ/m² per year.
Current value:−3.2 MJ/m² p.a.
Target path:−11.2 MJ/m² p.a.
=28.8 %
Category
Efficiency and lifestyle
Sector
Buildings
Share of district heating in heat and hot water
on track
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.21 %-point annually from 2019 to 2021. The change was per year.
Current value:0.21 %-point p.a.
Target path:0.21 %-point p.a.
=100 %
Category
Infrastructure
Sector
Buildings
Annual GHG emissions of the industrial sector
on track
One-off effect
Energy crisis
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −3.1 MtCO₂e annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −6.4 MtCO₂e per year.
Current value:−6.4 MtCO₂e p.a.
Target path:−3.1 MtCO₂e p.a.
=206 %
Category
Emission reduction
Sector
Industry
Emissions intensity of GDP
on track
One-off effect
Energy crisis
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −0.34 tCO₂/million Euro annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −1.03 tCO₂/million Euro per year.
Current value:−1.03 tCO₂/million Euro p.a.
Target path:−0.34 tCO₂/million Euro p.a.
=299 %
Category
Emission reduction
Sector
Industry
Annual biomass demand in industry
on track
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 2.5 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 3.5 TWh per year.
Current value:3.5 TWh p.a.
Target path:2.5 TWh p.a.
=136 %
Category
Renewable ramp-up
Sector
Industry
Project pipeline H₂-based steel production
on track
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.68 Mt annually from 2019 to 2030. In fact, the planned change was 1.46 Mt per year.
Current value:1.46 Mt p.a.
Target path:0.68 Mt p.a.
=215 %
Category
Infrastructure
Sector
Industry
Annual steel production via secondary route
step back
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.44 Mt annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −0.52 Mt per year.
Current value:−0.52 Mt p.a.
Target path:0.44 Mt p.a.
=−120 %
Category
Efficiency and lifestyle
Sector
Industry
Electricity share in the industries final energy demand
step back
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.05 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −0.32 %-point per year.
Current value:−0.32 %-point p.a.
Target path:0.05 %-point p.a.
=−594 %
Category
Electrification
Sector
Industry
Annual oil, coal, and gas demand in industry
on track
One-off effect
Energy crisis
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −4.9 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −5.8 TWh per year.
Current value:−5.8 TWh p.a.
Target path:−4.9 TWh p.a.
=118 %
Category
Fossil phase-out
Sector
Industry
Final energy demand per unit of gross domestic product
on track
One-off effect
Energy crisis
According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −8.7 MJ/thousand Euro annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −12.0 MJ/thousand Euro per year.
Current value:−12.0 MJ/thousand Euro p.a.
Target path:−8.7 MJ/thousand Euro p.a.
=138 %
Category
Efficiency and lifestyle
Sector
Industry
Is the German energy transition on track?
To reach climate neutrality in 2045, the German energy system needs to be transformed at an unprecedented pace. The Transformation Tracker takes a look at a variety of indicators for the progress of the energy transition (e.g. the number of e-cars or the share of renewables in the electricity mix) and compares actual data with target paths from the Ariadne scenarios.
5indicators
←step back
below 0 %
9indicators
←far too slow→
0 to 50 %
16indicators
←too slow→
50 to 95 %
17indicators
on track→
above 95 %
Legend
step back
far too slow
too slow
on track
One-off effect
Technology Mix
Balanced technology mix - achieving climate targets with a mix of direct and indirect electrification and a broad energy carrier portfolio
Ariadne scenarios
How is the assessment done?
For each indicator, we measure the progress of the transformation. To do this, we set the actual development of the indicator - latest available value (current value) minus value in the reference year 2019 (reference value) - in relation to the development of the lead model in the Ariadne target path (model value) over the same time period.
Current value−Reference value
Model value−Reference value
=progress
Examples
Assessment
An indicator is on track if it develops according to the target path or better (progress is > 95 %).
460−200
400−200
=1.3 (130 %)
Progress over time
Actual progress
Overview of indicators
Each indicator at a glance: How is the indicator developing? How does the corresponding target path in the Ariadne scenario compare to this? How is the current progress of the indicator assessed? Is it developing within the target corridor set out by all scenarios and models?
Total annual GHG emissions in Germany; these are mostly energy-related CO₂ emissions from combusting fossil fuels – primarily for electricity and heat generation – and from material use of fossils in industry.
Share of electricity as an energy source in total final energy consumption in Germany, e.g. for lighting and electrical appliances, the operation of heat pumps or for charging e-cars.
Annual final energy demand of the transport sector
too slow56 %
Actual progress
−19.3 TWh p.a.
As per target path (corridor)
−34.8 TWh p.a.
−34.8 to −32.2
Annual final energy demand of the entire German transport sector (passenger and freight transport by road, rail, water and air), in particular gasoline, diesel, kerosene and electricity.
Share of renewable energy in final energy demand of the transport sector, which includes demand of biofuels, green hydrogen, and renewable electricity in batteries and electricity-based fuels.
Share of newly registered all-electric passenger cars per year, i.e. battery electric passenger cars (BEV) and fuel cell passenger cars (FCEV), in total new registrations.
Annual GHG emissions resulting from the direct combustion of fossil fuels such as natural gas or light fuel oil in residential and commercial buildings for heating or hot water.
Annual final energy demand of the buildings sector (private households and trade, commerce and services), in particular for space heating and hot water, but also for lighting, information and communication technology, for example.
Electricity share in buildings final energy demand
far too slow13 %
Actual progress
0.05 %-point p.a.
As per target path (corridor)
0.37 %-point p.a.
0.37 to 0.77
Share of electricity in final energy demand of the buildings sector; in addition to use for lighting and electrical appliances, the use for heat pumps is becoming increasingly relevant.
Share of fossil fuels, i.e. heating oil, coal and natural gas, but also the fossil-generated electricity and district heating in the final energy demand of the buildings sector.
Share of district heating in final energy demand of the buildings sector (private households and business, trade and services) for space heating and hot water.