Ariadne

Transformation Tracker

Indicators by sector

  1. Overall system
  2. Energy industry
  3. Transport
  4. Buildings
  5. Industry

Indicators by category

  1. Emission reduction
  2. Renewable ramp-up
  3. Fossil phase-out
  4. Electrification
  5. Efficiency and lifestyle
  6. Infrastructure
Category Deep dive

Electrification

Electrification - the switch to electric power as an energy source, ideally from renewable sources such as wind or photovoltaics - is the first and probably easiest step on the way to decarbonization of end use setors. In this context, the path to carbon neutrality largely involves switching from fossil fuels to the direct use of electricity and the simultaneous rapid decarbonization of electricity generation. Here, a change in technology (e.g., from combustion to e-car or oil boiler to heat pump) goes hand in hand with efficiency improvements and thus energy savings, as electric technologies are usually more efficient than traditional combustion-based ones.

This affects all sectors: In the transport sector, it implies switching to electromobility, especially in private transport, as well as the electrification of public (local) transport. In industry, for example, the generation of process heat and steam can be switched to large-scale heat pumps. In the buildings sector, heat pumps play a key role in replacing oil and gas boilers in a climate-friendly way.

The limiting factor in the electrification of final energy consumption is more likely the necessary adaptation at the level of the end user than the availability of renewable electricity.

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Share of electricity in final energy consumption

6.0% far too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

Share of electricity as an energy source in total final energy consumption in Germany, e.g. for lighting and electrical appliances, the operation of heat pumps or for charging e-cars.

The path to climate neutrality is mainly driven by switching from fossil fuels to the direct use of electricity and simultaneously decarbonizing power generation. After the share of electricity in final energy consumption in Germany initially rose slightly since 1990, reaching 20% for the first time in 2004, the development has stagnated since then. In fact, an increase in the share of electricity to at least 30% by 2030 would be necessary for a successful transformation in all Ariadne target pathways.

Key points

  1. Together with the decarbonization of power generation, the increased use of electricity is an essential part of the energy transition.
  2. According to the target paths, an increase in the share of electricity in final energy to at least 30% by 2030 is necessary, whereas the actual share has stagnated at approximately 20% for over 15 years.
  3. The drivers of electrification should be electromobility and the growing use of heat pumps by 2030, followed by the conversion of production processes in industry.

Share of all-electric passenger cars in new registrations per year

77% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the share of new registrations of fully electric passenger cars per year. Fully electric passenger cars are cars that are powered exclusively by an electric motor, i.e. battery electric cars (BEV) and fuel cell cars (FCEV).

The biggest lever for reducing CO₂ emissions from the transport sector in the medium to long term is the switch to electric mobility. It is therefore important to rapidly increase the proportion of all-electric vehicles in the fleet by massively increasing the number of new registrations of all-electric vehicles in the coming years.

Key points

  1. A rapid ramp-up of electromobility is essential for a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions from the transport sector.
  2. When compared to the Ariadne technology paths, the number of newly registered all-electric passenger cars must increase steadily each year.
  3. EU regulation ensures that only CO₂-emission-free passenger cars may be registered from 2035. How quickly all-electric passenger cars will establish on the market by then is subject to great uncertainty.

Fleet of all-electric passenger cars

73% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the number of fully electric passenger cars in the fleet per year. Fully electric passenger cars are cars that are powered exclusively by an electric motor, i.e. battery electric cars (BEV) and fuel cell cars (FCEV).

On January 1, 2023, just over one million all-electric passenger cars were registered in Germany. This figure is set to rise to 15 million in 2030, according to the coalition agreement signed by the "traffic light" government.

Key points

  1. Particularly due to the EU fleet limits and various funding instruments, the number of all-electric passenger cars in stock has been rising, especially since 2020.
  2. According to the coalition agreement, this number is to rise to 15 million in 2030 - this figure is not reached by the lead model.
  3. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the development of the stock of all-electric passenger cars, and the model and scenario corridor is correspondingly broad.

Share of all-electric trucks in new registrations per year

78% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the share of fully electric trucks in all new registrations per year. All-electric trucks include trucks powered exclusively by an electric motor, i.e. battery electric trucks and fuel cell trucks.

The biggest lever for reducing CO₂ emissions in freight transport in the medium to long term is the switch to electric mobility. It is therefore important to rapidly increase the share of all-electric trucks in new registrations and thus in the existing fleet in the coming years.

Key points

  1. A rapid ramp-up of electromobility is essential for a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions from transport.
  2. Based on the Ariadne target paths, the number of newly registered all-electric trucks per year has to increase steadily.
  3. In particular, European regulation and national instruments are driving the ramp-up of all-electric trucks. However, it is uncertain how quickly all-electric trucks will dominate the market.

Share of electricity in final energy demand of the transport sector

38% far too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the share of electricity in the final energy demand of the transport sector, especially for operating electric vehicles (additionally to cars, especially trucks, but also buses and trains).

For a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions in the transport sector, it is crucial that more kilometers are covered electrically, i.e. without direct CO₂ emissions. Currently, the share of electricity in the sector's final energy demand is low, as cars and trucks are almost entirely powered by gasoline and diesel.

Key points

  1. The direct electrification in the transport sector is shown.
  2. The increasing use of electricity in the transport sector has a significant GHG mitigation effect, which further increases with the growing share of renewables in the electricity mix.
  3. At the same time, the growing share of electricity in final energy demand increases the energy efficiency of the transport sector.

Sales of heat pumps per year

88% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the absolute number of heat pumps sold per year. It does not include heat pumps for process heat in industry or large heat pumps for district heating.

The historical development of heat pump sales shows that the technology is at the beginning of market penetration. While sales in new buildings were around 50% in 2022, heat pumps account for only around 3% of the existing building stock in 2022 (bdew, 2022), so overall the share of heat pumps is only 25-30% of all heating installations.

Key points

  1. Thanks to high efficiency and the possibility of direct use of renewable electricity, heat pumps play a central role in decarbonized heat supply.
  2. With 196,500 heat pumps having already been installed in the first half of 2023, reaching the political target of 500,000 heat pumps sold per year from 2024 seems possible.
  3. While heat pumps already have a share of around 50% in new buildings, penetration in existing buildings still needs to increase significantly (currently only around 3%).

Stock of heat pumps

101% on track Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the total number of heat pumps in the stock of all heating systems.

The historical development of heat pump sales shows that the technology is at the beginning of market penetration. While sales in new buildings were around 50% in 2022, heat pumps account for only around 3% of the existing building stock in 2022 (bdew, 2022), so overall the share of heat pumps is only 25-30% of all heating installations.

Key points

  1. Thanks to their high efficiency and the possibility of direct use of renewable electricity, heat pumps play a central role in decarbonizing the heat supply.
  2. With 196,500 heat pumps having already been installed in the first half of 2023, reaching the political target of 500,000 heat pumps sold per year from 2024 seems possible.
  3. While heat pumps already have a share of around 50% in new buildings, penetration in existing buildings still needs to increase significantly (currently only around 3%).

Share of electricity in final energy demand of the buildings sector

13% far too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the share of electricity in the final energy demand of the buildings sector. In addition to consumption for lighting and electrical appliances, this increasingly includes electricity for heat pumps.

The share of electricity in final energy demand of the buildings sector has stagnated or declined slightly in recent years. However, since direct electrification of the end-use sectors is one of the key steps for a successful energy transition, the Ariadne target paths assume a significant increase in the share of electricity in final energy: from currently around 26% to around 35-45% already in 2030 and 60-80% in 2045.

Key points

  1. The share of electricity in final energy demand must increase significantly in the future and reduce the use of fossil fuels, especially natural gas and heating oil.
  2. The indicator shows a clear transition gap: At present, instead of an increase in electrification, there are signs of stagnation.
  3. In existing buildings in particular, fossil heating systems must no longer be replaced by new fossil systems; instead, heat pumps will play a key role.

Share of electricity in final energy demand of the industry sector

−594% step back Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

This indicator shows which share of the final energy demand of the industrial sector is supplied directly by electricity.

A robust outcome in the vast majority of successful transformation scenarios is the electrification of final industrial energy demand. The degree of direct electrification - as distinct from indirect electrification via hydrogen or synthetic fuels - depends on the scenario and can vary greatly.

Key points

  1. The degree of electrification of final energy demand increases - to a greater or lesser extent, depending on the Ariadne scenario.
  2. This growth is driven by new applications (electrified process heat) and overcompensates efficiency gains of traditional applications (motors, lighting).
  3. Delayed development may only be made up for by deep intervention in the production plant structure and is likely to be economically inefficient.

Further deep dives

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