Ariadne

Transformation Tracker

Indicators by sector

  1. Overall system
  2. Energy industry
  3. Transport
  4. Buildings
  5. Industry

Indicators by category

  1. Emission reduction
  2. Renewable ramp-up
  3. Fossil phase-out
  4. Electrification
  5. Efficiency and lifestyle
  6. Infrastructure
Category Deep dive

Renewable ramp-up

The use of renewable energy sources - first and foremost wind and solar energy, but also biomass, geothermal energy and hydropower - is the basis of the energy transition in Germany. This affects all sectors: In the transport sector, the key strategy of the transformation is electrification (using green electricity); in industry, processes are to be electrified in the future (e.g., steel production using hydrogen-based direct reduction) or converted to other fuels (e.g., green hydrogen); and in the buildings sector, for example, heat pumps powered by green electricity are to be used.

In 2021, renewables accounted for 40% of gross electricity consumption and about 19% of total final energy consumption. However, the expansion of renewables must speed up significantly, especially with rising electricity demand (roughly doubling the share of gross electricity consumption to 80% by 2030 compared to 2020), in order to stay on track to achieve climate neutrality in 2045.

4 ind.
3 ind.
1 ind.
far too slow
too slow
on track

Share of renewables in final energy consumption

73% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

Share of renewables in total final energy consumption in Germany, mainly resulting from renewably generated electricity and district heating, but also from bioenergy, solar thermal energy, green hydrogen, and e-fuels.

The share of renewables in final energy consumption in Germany has been steadily rising since 1990, when it was only around 1%. The goal of the German government of increasing the share to at least 18% by 2020 has been achieved. So far, the expansion of renewables in electricity generation has been primarily responsible for this.

Key points

  1. Since 1990, the share of renewables in final energy has risen steadily to more than 20% today, mainly due to the expansion of wind energy and PV in the electricity sector.
  2. The trend of the last few years is not sufficient to achieve the share of about 40% in 2030 required according to the Ariadne target paths. The German government's target of 30% in 2030 would also be missed.
  3. The key to success is the accelerated expansion of renewables in power generation together with the expansion of electromobility and the use of heat pumps.

Installed capacity offshore wind

32% far too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

Installed electrical capacity of offshore wind turbines, adjusted for self-consumption (net capacity).

The rapid expansion of the installed capacity of renewable energies has a direct reducing effect on the emission intensity of electricity generation and - with an increasing electrification of other sectors - also on the transformation outside the energy industry.

Key points

  1. After approximately 1 GW of additional offshore wind energy was connected to the grid annually from 2016 to 2019, the expansion decreased significantly to just under 350 MW in 2022 in the years 2020-22.
  2. To achieve the 2030 target set by the WindSeeG 2023, the expansion rate would need to increase more than tenfold compared to 2020-22.
  3. The Ariadne target scenarios show a corridor of 25-30 GW for 2030, with the 2030 target of 30 GW being only (just) achieved in the Focus Electricity target path.

Installed capacity onshore wind

40% far too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

Installed electrical capacity of onshore wind turbines, adjusted for self-consumption (net capacity).

The rapid expansion of the installed capacity of renewable energies has a direct reducing effect on the emission intensity of electricity generation and - with an increasing electrification of other sectors - also on the transformation outside the energy industry.

Key points

  1. To achieve the 2030 goal of 115 GW of installed capacity for onshore wind turbines, the expansion rate would need to increase more than fourfold compared to the average of the years 2020-22.
  2. The conditions for the expansion of wind energy have been improved with the Easter package.
  3. The upcoming years will show whether the measures are sufficient to reach the necessary speed.

Installed capacity photovoltaics

85% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

Installed electrical capacity of photovoltaics, adjusted for self-consumption (net output).

The rapid expansion of the installed capacity of renewable energies has a direct reducing effect on the emission intensity of electricity generation and - with an increasing electrification of other sectors - also on the transformation outside the energy industry.

Key points

  1. With a further 40% increase in the rate of solar PV expansion (compared to the first 8 months in 2023), the 2030 target appears achievable.
  2. The conditions for the expansion of rooftop and ground-mounted PV have been improved with the “Easter package”.
  3. The coming years will show whether the measures are sufficient to achieve the necessary speed.

Share of renewable power in the overall net power generation

35% far too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

Share of renewably generated electricity (from wind, water, biomass, by means of photovoltaics and geothermal energy) in the total net electricity generation.

Increasing the share of renewables in electricity generation is the most important driver of the decarbonization of the energy industry. The positive trend since 2015 is primarily due to the expansion of the installed capacity of wind turbines and photovoltaics.

Key points

  1. Increasing the share of renewables in electricity generation is the main driver for energy decarbonization.
  2. According to Ariadne target scenarios, renewables make up a share of 73-84% of the electricity generation in 2030.
  3. The pace of renewables expansion needs to be significantly increased to meet the policy targets and the target corridor according to Ariadne scenarios in 2030.

Share of renewables in final energy demand of the transport sector

44% far too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

Share of renewable energy in final energy demand of the transport sector, which includes demand of biofuels, green hydrogen, and renewable electricity in batteries, and electricity-based fuels.

The share of renewables is a key indicator for Germany's compliance with the requirements of the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (currently RED II). The share of renewables in the gross final energy demand of liquid and gaseous fuels or electricity in the transport sector is to increase gradually to at least 14% (incl. multiple credits) by 2030.

Key points

  1. The share of renewables in the final energy of the transport sector is increasing.
  2. Key driver is in particular the share of electricity from renewable energy sources - meaning that consequently, the pace of decarbonization in the energy sector is also important for the energy balance of the transport sector.

Share of renewables in final energy demand of the buildings sector

91% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The share of renewables in final energy demand in the buildings sector primarily includes renewably generated electricity, renewably generated district heating, and biomass.

The share of renewable energies has increased slowly but steadily in recent years. The provision of electricity and district heating is being switched to renewables, just as the share of renewables in the heating of buildings is increasing (BMWK, 2022).

Key points

  1. The share of renewables in final energy demand is slowly increasing, but the development will have to be accelerated significantly.
  2. Therefore, buildings must switch more quickly from gas heating and oil boilers to heat pumps and district heating.
  3. In addition, electricity and district heating must be provided renewably with wind and PV or large-scale heat pumps.

Annual biomass demand in the industry sector

136% on track Compared to the scenario Technology Mix
One-off effect
Energy crisis

This indicator shows the annual biomass use as an energy carrier in the industrial sector. Use as feedstock (in chemicals, wood processing and in paper production) is not included.

Biomass as an energy source has a tradition in industry in some sectors. There, it is mainly residual materials from production that are used, such as those from paper production or wood processing. These residual materials are often very attractive as energy sources because they are available on site and can therefore be used economically. Moreover, since the carbon they contain is biogenic in nature, they are rated as CO₂-neutral. The use of biomass can help meet sector targets.

Key points

  1. The use of biomass for energy can help to achieve the sector target for industry.
  2. From the perspective of the entire system, utilization beyond the limit set by the availability of residual materials must be viewed critically.
  3. Successful transformation scenarios probably do not expand use significantly. However, there can be large deviations.

Further deep dives

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