Sector Deep dive

Transport

The transport sector includes the transportation services of the following modes of transport: cars, trucks and buses (road transport), locomotive and multiple units (rail transport), aircraft (air transport), inland waterway vessels (shipping), and walking and cycling (active modes).

Road transport accounted for the largest share (about 98%) of the sector's GHG emissions accounted for under the Federal Climate Protection Act (KSG) in 2021 (Umweltbundesamt, 2022).

In order to achieve the sector targets from the KSG and climate neutrality in 2045, three strategies must be deployed: first, the direct electrification (use of battery electric vehicles) and indirect electrification (use of hydrogen and/or e-fuels) of drive systems; second, the so-called mobility transition, i.e. shifting transport services from road to rail and active modes; third, sensible traffic avoidance. Ariadne's technology scenarios in the transport sector focus on the drive turnaround on the way to Germany's climate neutrality in 2045.

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step back
far too slow
too slow
on track

Annual GHG emissions of the transport sector

97% on track Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

In terms of KSG accounting, the indicator contains annual GHG emissions according to the source principle, i.e. GHG emissions resulting from the direct combustion of fossil fuels such as gasoline, diesel, or kerosene in the transport sector.

99% of GHG emissions from the transport sector are CO₂ emissions (UBA, 2023). In the past three decades, annual sectoral CO₂ emissions have not been reduced on average.

Key points

  1. The target paths of the Ariadne scenarios almost achieve climate neutrality in the transport sector by 2045.
  2. The scenario and model range clearly shows that further measures to reduce emissions are needed.
  3. Emissions that the transport sector as a whole emits too much must be offset by other sectors.

Annual final energy demand of the transport sector

56% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix
One-off effect
Pandemic

The indicator describes the annual final energy demand of the entire transport sector, i.e. in particular the demand for petrol, diesel, kerosene and, with increasing electrification of the sector, more and more electricity. Energy demand for both passenger and freight transportation is included.

Over the past three decades, the annual final energy demand in the transport sector has remained constant. It fell significantly in the first year of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 due to the reduced mobility of people and a significant reduction in the transportation of goods. In the following years, final energy demand rose again.

Key points

  1. As can be seen in the Ariadne scenarios, a successful transformation of the transport sector goes hand in hand with a significant reduction in final energy demand.
  2. In particular, the necessary rapid direct electrification of the sector should lead to a significant reduction in final energy demand.

Share of public transport in the overall passenger service

−800% step back Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

This indicator shows the share of public transport by bus and train in the total passenger transport services.

The indicator describes one part of the mobility transition, specifically the shift from private motorized transport to local and long-distance public transport by bus and rail, which is reflected in an increase in the share of total passenger transport services.

Key points

  1. The aim is to increase the share of public transport in Germany, primarily by measures to enhance its attractiveness.
  2. In addition to a sensible avoidance of traffic, the shift from motorized individual transport to public passenger transport is an important lever for achieving the necessary GHG reductions in the transport sector.
  3. Faster electrification of the transport sector can reduce the necessary level of modal shift.

Share of motorized individual transport in the overall passenger service

−73% step back Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

This indicator shows the share of motorized individual transport (passenger cars, motorized 2- and 3-wheelers) in the total passenger transport services.

The indicator describes one part of the mobility transition - the reduction of the share of private motorized transport. This reduction, provided it includes vehicles with combustion engines, always also implies a reduction in CO₂ emissions in the sector.

Key points

  1. The modal shift, i.e., among other aspects, the shift from private motorized transport to public passenger transport, is an important lever to facilitate achieving the necessary GHG reductions in the transport sector.
  2. Faster electrification of the transport sector can reduce the necessary level of modal shift.

Share of renewables in final energy demand of the transport sector

44% far too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

Share of renewable energy in final energy demand of the transport sector, which includes demand of biofuels, green hydrogen, and renewable electricity in batteries, and electricity-based fuels.

The share of renewables is a key indicator for Germany's compliance with the requirements of the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (currently RED II). The share of renewables in the gross final energy demand of liquid and gaseous fuels or electricity in the transport sector is to increase gradually to at least 14% (incl. multiple credits) by 2030.

Key points

  1. The share of renewables in the final energy of the transport sector is increasing.
  2. Key driver is in particular the share of electricity from renewable energy sources - meaning that consequently, the pace of decarbonization in the energy sector is also important for the energy balance of the transport sector.

Share of all-electric passenger cars in new registrations per year

79% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the share of new registrations of fully electric passenger cars per year. Fully electric passenger cars are cars that are powered exclusively by an electric motor, i.e. battery electric cars (BEV) and fuel cell cars (FCEV).

The biggest lever for reducing CO₂ emissions from the transport sector in the medium to long term is the switch to electric mobility. It is therefore important to rapidly increase the proportion of all-electric vehicles in the fleet by massively increasing the number of new registrations of all-electric vehicles in the coming years.

Key points

  1. A rapid ramp-up of electromobility is essential for a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions from the transport sector.
  2. When compared to the Ariadne technology paths, the number of newly registered all-electric passenger cars must increase steadily each year.
  3. EU regulation ensures that only CO₂-emission-free passenger cars may be registered from 2035. How quickly all-electric passenger cars will establish on the market by then is subject to great uncertainty.

Fleet of all-electric passenger cars

72% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the number of fully electric passenger cars in the fleet per year. Fully electric passenger cars are cars that are powered exclusively by an electric motor, i.e. battery electric cars (BEV) and fuel cell cars (FCEV).

On January 1, 2023, just over one million all-electric passenger cars were registered in Germany. This figure is set to rise to 15 million in 2030, according to the coalition agreement signed by the "traffic light" government.

Key points

  1. Particularly due to the EU fleet limits and various funding instruments, the number of all-electric passenger cars in stock has been rising, especially since 2020.
  2. According to the coalition agreement, this number is to rise to 15 million in 2030 - this figure is not reached by the lead model.
  3. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the development of the stock of all-electric passenger cars, and the model and scenario corridor is correspondingly broad.

Share of all-electric trucks in new registrations per year

76% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the share of fully electric trucks in all new registrations per year. All-electric trucks include trucks powered exclusively by an electric motor, i.e. battery electric trucks and fuel cell trucks.

The biggest lever for reducing CO₂ emissions in freight transport in the medium to long term is the switch to electric mobility. It is therefore important to rapidly increase the share of all-electric trucks in new registrations and thus in the existing fleet in the coming years.

Key points

  1. A rapid ramp-up of electromobility is essential for a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions from transport.
  2. Based on the Ariadne target paths, the number of newly registered all-electric trucks per year has to increase steadily.
  3. In particular, European regulation and national instruments are driving the ramp-up of all-electric trucks. However, it is uncertain how quickly all-electric trucks will dominate the market.

Share of electricity in final energy demand of the transport sector

38% far too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the share of electricity in the final energy demand of the transport sector, especially for operating electric vehicles (additionally to cars, especially trucks, but also buses and trains).

For a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions in the transport sector, it is crucial that more kilometers are covered electrically, i.e. without direct CO₂ emissions. Currently, the share of electricity in the sector's final energy demand is low, as cars and trucks are almost entirely powered by gasoline and diesel.

Key points

  1. The direct electrification in the transport sector is shown.
  2. The increasing use of electricity in the transport sector has a significant GHG mitigation effect, which further increases with the growing share of renewables in the electricity mix.
  3. At the same time, the growing share of electricity in final energy demand increases the energy efficiency of the transport sector.

Share of passenger cars with an internal combustion engine in new registrations per year

55% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The indicator shows the share of new registrations of passenger cars with internal combustion engines per year. This category includes the fuel types gasoline and diesel including hybrids, but also liquid and natural gas.

Despite the increasing relevance of all-electric passenger cars, most newly registered passenger cars in Germany still have an internal combustion engine. Every newly registered combustion engine remains in the German passenger car fleet for many years: As of January 1, 2023, more than 23% of passenger cars in Germany were 15 or more years old. Due to this longevity of passenger cars in the German stock, the proportion of newly registered internal combustion vehicles must fall rapidly in the coming years so that the consumption of fossil fuels can be reduced.

Key points

  1. The majority of newly registered passenger cars in Germany today still have an internal combustion engine, whch remain in the German passenger car stock for many years.
  2. EU regulation envisages an end to new registrations of vehicles with internal combustion from 2035; how quickly their share will fall by 2035 is however uncertain.
  3. The larger the share of newly registered cars with internal combustion engines in the coming years, the greater will be the final energy demand of passenger car traffic for CO₂-neutral fuels, which are expected to be scarce.

Annual demand for gasoline and diesel in the transport sector

90% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix
One-off effect
Pandemic

The indicator shows the annual demand for gasoline and diesel fuel in the transport sector. These fuels are consumed in particular in road transport, but also in small quantities in rail and inland waterway transport.

The transport sector has always been heavily dependent on gasoline and diesel fuel, with cars, trucks and buses in particular being powered almost exclusively by these fuels today. Small amounts of diesel fuel are also consumed in the part of rail transport, which has not yet been electrified, as well as in inland waterway transport. The goal of rapidly reducing GHG emissions is accompanied by the gradual replacement of gasoline and diesel with electricity and renewable energy.

Key points

  1. The goal of rapidly reducing GHG emissions from transportation is accompanied by the gradual replacement of gasoline and diesel with electricity and renewable energy.
  2. How rapidly the dependence on gasoline and diesel can be reduced depends on how quickly all-electric vehicles are adopted, how efficiently internal combustion engines are operated, and how much mileage can be shifted to rail or avoided completely.
  3. Driving services that are not directly electrified by 2045 will have to be provided by hydrogen or CO₂-neutral fuels.