About Us

Acknowledgement

Special thanks go to all the test users (from the Ariadne consortium as well as from politics, associations, industry and the press), who contributed to the fine-tuning of the website with their detailed and very valuable feedback.

We would also like to thank Wolf-Peter Schill and Alexander Roth, who are developing our sister project Open Energy Tracker and the Ampelmonitor Energiewende at DIW, for their advice and inspiration.

The Kopernikus Project Ariadne

In a consortium of more than 25 research institutions, the Kopernikus project Ariadne (full name: Ariadne - Evidence-based Assessment for the Design of the German Energy Transition) explores which policy instruments are suitable for achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

From a better understanding of the impact of individual policy measures and policy paths to an overview of the overall energy system - Ariadne leads through a joint learning process with stakeholders from politics, research and society. In doing so, the project examines sensible strategies for the energy transition and their acceptance by citizens and develops important orientation knowledge for political decision-makers.

Ariadne is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) over three years with a total of 30 million euros and is part of the Kopernikus Research Initiative. As the fourth Kopernikus pillar, Ariadne complements the ENSURE, P2X and SynErgie projects. Together, the Kopernikus projects form one of the largest German research initiatives on the subject of energy transition.

The Ariadne scenarios

In the Ariadne project, scenarios are being developed that describe different transformation paths toward climate neutrality. The transformation paths cover the entire energy system and the end-use sectors industry, buildings and transport. The research focus of the several project partners allows an integrated model comparison applying overall system as well as sector specific models.

The models are used according to their respective strengths, enabling the development of detailed energy transition pathways. At the same time, the use of multiple models results in a range of developments per scenario (each one a reasonable climate target path), such that robust strategies can also be derived and uncertainties and barriers along the transformation can be analyzed.

All Ariadne scenarios are target scenarios, i.e., both reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by -65% by 2030 compared to 1990 according to the German KSG (Climate Protection Act) is reached and climate neutrality in Germany is achieved in 2045. The considered residual budget of greenhouse gas emissions for Germany corresponds to an energy transition path, in which global warming is limited to below 2 degrees Celsius.

It is assumed that from 2022, climate policy will go beyond existing measures and be aligned with the German climate targets. This focus on climate targets for 2030 and 2045 is then reflected in the presented model results from 2025 onwards.

Scenario

Characteristics

References

Focus Hydrogen 8Gt_H2 11/17/2023

Stronger focus on ramping up technologies for indirect electrification of sectors
Increased use of hydrogen and synthetic fuels - renewably produced and also imported
Direct electrification nevertheless plays essential role in decarbonizing final energy
Expansion of renewable power generation achieves politically set targets

Luderer, G., Kost, C., Soergel, D. et al. (2021): Deutschland auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität 2045 - Szenarien und Pfade im Modellvergleich, Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne, Potsdam. [DOI: 10.48485/pik.2021.006]

For more information see also the Ariadne-Pathfinder.

Focus Electrification 8Gt_Elec 11/17/2023

Focus on ramping up technologies for direct electrification of sectors
Electricity as preferred energy source in final energy, other energy sources supplementary where necessary (hydrogen, synthetic fuels)
Expansion of renewable electricity generation at least meets politically set targets
Imports of renewably generated energy at medium level

For more information see also the Ariadne-Pathfinder.

Technology Mix 8Gt_Bal 11/17/2023

Balanced mix of technologies for decarbonization of the sectors
Broad energy carrier portfolio in final energy (Hydrogen, electricity, synthetic fuels)
Expansion of renewable electricity generation meets political targets
Imports of renewably generated energy at medium level
Serves as reference scenario in the family of Ariadne scenarios

For more information see also the Ariadne-Pathfinder.

The models applied in Ariadne

In Ariadne, for the model comparison, three cross-sector energy system models are used (REMIND-EU, REMod and TIMES PanEU). In addition, sector-specific models are applied for the energy sector (E2M2s), the industry sector (FORECAST), the transport sector (DLR/DEMO/Vector21) and the buildings sector (also REMod).

REMod v1.0: REMod is a cross-sectoral energy system model that examines technically feasible and cost-effective climate protection paths of the German energy system until 2050. Its hourly resolution enables detailed modeling of Renewables integration and sector coupling. REMod is also lead model for the buildings sector.

Fraunhofer ISE – Working Group Energy Systems and Markets
E2M2s v4.1-A: E2M2 is an electricity market model that optimizes operation and investment decisions in the European competitive electricity market under the objective of system cost minimization. E2M2 identifies reasonable measures for the cost-efficient and long-term reliable integration of high shares of renewable energies into the electricity system.

University of Stuttgart – Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use
TIMES PanEU v1.0: TIMES PanEU is a 30-region pan-European energy system model that covers all sectors involved in energy supply and demand at the national level. The model assumes full competition between different technologies or energy conversion pathways.

University of Stuttgart – Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use
REMIND-EU v1.1: The energy-economy model REMIND depicts Germany's energy economy in the context of global change. It combines an intertemporal macro-economic growth model with a detailed representation of the energy system and the demand sectors transport, buildings and industry.

PIK – Working Group Energy Systems
DLR/DEMO v1/Vector21: DLR/DEMO v1/Vector21 is a family of models depicting the German transport sector; DLR-DEMO models transport development in all sectors and for all modes of transport; DLR-Vector21 simulates the market development of vehicle technologies; DLR provides the emissions and final energy consumption of the transport sector.

DLR – Institute of Transport Research
Forecast v1.0: FORECAST is a bottom-up energy demand and technology model of the industrial sector. Energy consumption, emissions and costs are modeled for eight individual sectors at the process level. It enables detailed analyses regarding the structure of abatement costs and potentials in the industrial sector.

Fraunhofer ISI – Competence Center Energy Technology and Energy Systems

Glossary

Ariadne: Ariadne is one of four projects within the BMBF-funded Kopernikus research initiative on the topic of energy transition.
Assessment: In the Transformation Tracker, each energy transition indicator is assessed based on its current progress (from a reference year to today) compared to the target paths of the Ariadne scenarios. All indicator assessments together we interprete as the state of the energy transition.
Climate neutrality: Climate neutrality in 2045 in Germany is achieved when greenhouse gas emissions in the entire German energy system reach "net zero" in 2045. Remaining, non-avoidable emissions must be offset by negative emissions, e.g. by CO₂ removal from the atmosphere (CDR).
Climate targets: For Germany, the climate targets for the year 2030 are formulated in the Climate Protection Act (KSG). The last amendment of the law took place in 2021. For 2030, a 65% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 is set. In addition, annual emission limits for each sector and climate neutrality in 2045 are regulated.
DLR/DEMO/VECTOR21: Model family for modelling the German transport sector from the Institute of Transport Research of the German Aerospace Center (DLR).
E2M2s: A model for the European electricity market that optimises power plant deployment planning and investment decisions with the objective of minimising costs.
Energy sovereignty: Energy sovereignty is a scenario that describes the transformation of the German energy system to climate neutrality in 2045 while meeting the targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 according to the German climate protection law (KSG) and, at the same time, taking the energy crisis into account - in the sense of high prices for fossil fuels and special efforts to save natural gas in the short and medium term.
Energy transition category: The energy transition categories considered (emission reduction, renewable ramp-up, fossil phase-out, electrification, efficiency and lifestyle, and infrastructure) are essential pillars of the energy transition. The indicators used in the Transformation Tracker can be assigned to these pillars of the transformation to climate neutrality.
Energy transition indicator: Indicators that map the development of important transformation raletad aspects in the German energy system, e.g. CO₂ emissions, the share of renewable energies in the electricity mix, the stock of electric cars, the sales of heat pumps, the electrification of industry. Each indicator is assigned to a sector and an energy transition category.
Extraordinary effect: Events such as the Corona pandemic or the energy crisis influence some of the indicators. This can go so far that the current development of the indicator and its assessment in the Transformation Tracker are explained much more by this influence than by the structural transformation. To prevent misinterpretation of the results, the affected indicators are marked with the label "extraordinary effect".
Far too slow: "Far too slow" is a possible assessment of an energy transition indicator in the Transformation Tracker: an indicator develops "far too slow" if it only achieves 0-49% of the progress that is suggested by the lead model of the Ariadne scenario chosen as a benchmark.
FORECAST: A bottom-up energy demand and technology model of the industrial sector that models energy demand, emissions and costs.
Harmonisation: The results of the models for the individual indicators are calibrated on the basis of actual data: Normally, the model results for 2020 are adjusted to the mean value from the actual data for 2019-21 (reference period). Harmonisation normally expires by 2025 (end year). The reference period and the end year of harmonisation are specified for each indicator in the methods info box.
Kopernikus projects: The Kopernikus projects form one of the largest German research initiatives on the topic of energy transition. Their goal is to enable a climate-neutral Federal Republic of Germany in 2045.
Lead model: The Ariadne scenarios are developed by model comparison, i.e. several models with different focuses are used to calculate one and the same scenario. According to the strengths of the models, the most appropriate model can be determined for each indicator - which is then the lead model for each indicator in the Transformation Tracker.
Model corridor: The best-fitting model for each indicator is the lead model; the results of all other models for the indicator form the model corridor, like an option space for the development of the indicator.
On track: "On track" is a possible assessment of an energy transition indicator in the Transformation Tracker: an indicator describes a successful development if its current progress at least matches that of the lead model in the Ariadne scenario.
Progress: We define progress as the development of an energy transition indicator from a reference year until today, i.e. until the most recent actual value available for the indicator.
Reference year: The Transformation Tracker looks at the development of each indicator from a reference year until today. Normally, this reference year is 2019, whereby the respective year is named in the methods info box for each indicator.
REMIND: REMIND is an energy-economy model that combines an intertemporal macro-economic growth model with a detailed representation of the energy system and the demand sectors transport, buildings and industry.
REMod: REMod is a cross-sectoral energy system model that calculates technically feasible and cost-effective climate protection paths of the German energy system until 2050 with an hourly resolution.
Scenario: A scenario in Ariadne is a future development of the German energy system across all sectors. Each scenario is based on certain assumptions and the derived effects. In Ariadne, target scenarios are considered that describe transformation paths to climate neutrality in 2045 in Germany.
Step back: "Step back" is a possible assessment of an energy transition indicator in the Transformation Tracker: An indicator takes a step back if it develops in the wrong direction compared to the lead model in the Ariadne scenario.
Target corridor: The sum of all target paths within a scenario resulting from the application of several models in the model comparison gives the target corridor.
Target path: Within a target scenario, a target path is calculated with each model used. Hence, the model comparison method in Ariadne results in one target path per model for each scenario. The target path of the most suitable model in each case serves as a benchmark for the respective transformation indicator.
Target scenario: A target scenario is a scenario for the transformation of the German energy system in which the targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions according to the Climate Protection Act (KSG) and climate neutrality in 2045 are achieved. All Ariadne scenarios are target scenarios.
Technology mix: Technology mix is a scenario that uses a balanced mix of technologies and a broad energy source portfolio (electricity, H2, e-fuels) to achieve GHG reductions according to KSG by 2030 and climate neutrality in 2045. Without a specific technological or thematic focus, it serves as a reference path within the Ariadne modelling.
Too slow: "Too slow" is a possible assessment of an energy transition indicator in the Transformation Tracker: an indicator develops "too slow" if it only achieves 50-94% of the progress that would result from the lead model of the Ariadne scenario chosen as a benchmark.

Citation suggestion and data license

We publish the data from the Ariadne scenarios under the CC BY 4.0 license. When using visualizations or data from the Transformation Tracker, we suggest citing the tracker as follows, in addition to the respective source of the actual data:

Kopernikus projekt Ariadne (2023): Transformation Tracker – Is the German energy transition on track?, http://tracker.ariadneprojekt.de/en/.

Transformation Tracker

Indicators by sector

Indicators by category

About Us

Acknowledgement

The Kopernikus Project Ariadne

The Ariadne scenarios

The models applied in Ariadne

Glossary

Citation suggestion and data license