According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −24.9 MtCO₂e annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −16.3 MtCO₂e per year.

Current value:−16.3 MtCO₂e p.a.

Target path:−24.9 MtCO₂e p.a.

=66 %

Category

Emission reduction

Sector

Overall system

Share of renewables in final energy

too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 1.27 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.92 %-point per year.

Current value:0.92 %-point p.a.

Target path:1.27 %-point p.a.

=73 %

Category

Renewable ramp-up

Sector

Overall system

Share of electricity in final energy

far too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.67 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.04 %-point per year.

Current value:0.04 %-point p.a.

Target path:0.67 %-point p.a.

=6.0 %

Category

Electrification

Sector

Overall system

Annual final energy demand

on track

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −28.7 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −41.5 TWh per year.

Current value:−41.5 TWh p.a.

Target path:−28.7 TWh p.a.

=145 %

Category

Efficiency and lifestyle

Sector

Overall system

Annual natural gas demand

on track

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −26.1 PJ annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −155.0 PJ per year.

Current value:−155.0 PJ p.a.

Target path:−26.1 PJ p.a.

=594 %

Category

Fossil phase-out

Sector

Overall system

Annual coal demand

step back

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −117.5 PJ annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 16.0 PJ per year.

Current value:16.0 PJ p.a.

Target path:−117.5 PJ p.a.

=−13.7 %

Category

Fossil phase-out

Sector

Overall system

Annual oil demand

on track

One-off effect

Pandemic

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −102 PJ annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −136 PJ per year.

Current value:−136 PJ p.a.

Target path:−102 PJ p.a.

=133 %

Category

Fossil phase-out

Sector

Overall system

Annual demand for fossil fuels

on track

One-off effects

Energy crisisPandemic

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −266 PJ annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −267 PJ per year.

Current value:−267 PJ p.a.

Target path:−266 PJ p.a.

=100 %

Category

Fossil phase-out

Sector

Overall system

Annual GHG emissions of the energy industry

far too slow

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −11.87 MtCO₂e annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −0.58 MtCO₂e per year.

Current value:−0.58 MtCO₂e p.a.

Target path:−11.87 MtCO₂e p.a.

=4.9 %

Category

Emission reduction

Sector

Energy industry

Emissions factor power generation

step back

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −26.1 gCO₂/kWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 6.1 gCO₂/kWh per year.

Current value:6.1 gCO₂/kWh p.a.

Target path:−26.1 gCO₂/kWh p.a.

=−23.2 %

Category

Emission reduction

Sector

Energy industry

Installed capacity offshore wind

far too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.70 GW annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 0.22 GW per year.

Current value:0.22 GW p.a.

Target path:0.70 GW p.a.

=32.2 %

Category

Renewable ramp-up

Sector

Energy industry

Installed capacity onshore wind

far too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 4.77 GW annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 1.93 GW per year.

Current value:1.93 GW p.a.

Target path:4.77 GW p.a.

=40.4 %

Category

Renewable ramp-up

Sector

Energy industry

Installed capacity photovoltaics

too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 9.7 GW annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 8.3 GW per year.

Current value:8.3 GW p.a.

Target path:9.7 GW p.a.

=85 %

Category

Renewable ramp-up

Sector

Energy industry

Renewables in power generation

far too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 4.21 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 1.47 %-point per year.

Current value:1.47 %-point p.a.

Target path:4.21 %-point p.a.

=34.8 %

Category

Renewable ramp-up

Sector

Energy industry

Annual fossil power generation

step back

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −8.58 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.03 TWh per year.

Current value:0.03 TWh p.a.

Target path:−8.58 TWh p.a.

=−0.39 %

Category

Fossil phase-out

Sector

Energy industry

Project pipeline H₂-Electrolizer

far too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 556 MW_{el} annually from 2019 to 2026. In fact, the planned change was 168 MW_{el} per year.

Current value:168 MW_{el} p.a.

Target path:556 MW_{el} p.a.

=30.2 %

Category

Infrastructure

Sector

Energy industry

Annual GHG emissions of the transport sector

on track

One-off effect

Pandemic

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −5.4 MtCO₂e annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −5.3 MtCO₂e per year.

Current value:−5.3 MtCO₂e p.a.

Target path:−5.4 MtCO₂e p.a.

=97 %

Category

Emission reduction

Sector

Transport

Annual final energy demand of the transport sector

too slow

One-off effect

Pandemic

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −34.8 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −19.3 TWh per year.

Current value:−19.3 TWh p.a.

Target path:−34.8 TWh p.a.

=56 %

Category

Efficiency and lifestyle

Sector

Transport

Share of renewables in transport

far too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.82 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.36 %-point per year.

Current value:0.36 %-point p.a.

Target path:0.82 %-point p.a.

=43.7 %

Category

Renewable ramp-up

Sector

Transport

Share of all-electric cars in new registrations

too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 5.3 %-point annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 4.1 %-point per year.

Current value:4.1 %-point p.a.

Target path:5.3 %-point p.a.

=77 %

Category

Electrification

Sector

Transport

All-electric car fleet

too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.44 millions annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 0.32 millions per year.

Current value:0.32 millions p.a.

Target path:0.44 millions p.a.

=73 %

Category

Electrification

Sector

Transport

Share of all-electric trucks in new registrations

too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 1.57 %-point annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 1.23 %-point per year.

Current value:1.23 %-point p.a.

Target path:1.57 %-point p.a.

=78 %

Category

Electrification

Sector

Transport

Electricity share in transports final energy demand

far too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.32 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.12 %-point per year.

Current value:0.12 %-point p.a.

Target path:0.32 %-point p.a.

=38.1 %

Category

Electrification

Sector

Transport

Share of cars with combustion engine

too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −7.6 %-point annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was −4.1 %-point per year.

Current value:−4.1 %-point p.a.

Target path:−7.6 %-point p.a.

=54 %

Category

Fossil phase-out

Sector

Transport

Annual gasoline and diesel demand

too slow

One-off effect

Pandemic

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −18.4 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −16.6 TWh per year.

Current value:−16.6 TWh p.a.

Target path:−18.4 TWh p.a.

=90 %

Category

Fossil phase-out

Sector

Transport

Share of public transport

step back

One-off effect

Pandemic

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.05 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −0.26 %-point per year.

Current value:−0.26 %-point p.a.

Target path:0.05 %-point p.a.

=−481 %

Category

Efficiency and lifestyle

Sector

Transport

Share of individual transport

step back

One-off effect

Pandemic

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −0.17 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.18 %-point per year.

Current value:0.18 %-point p.a.

Target path:−0.17 %-point p.a.

=−102 %

Category

Efficiency and lifestyle

Sector

Transport

Annual GHG emissions of the buildings sector

too slow

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −3.7 MtCO₂e annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −3.2 MtCO₂e per year.

Current value:−3.2 MtCO₂e p.a.

Target path:−3.7 MtCO₂e p.a.

=88 %

Category

Emission reduction

Sector

Buildings

Emissions intensity of buildings

too slow

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −1.18 kgCO₂/m² annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −1.07 kgCO₂/m² per year.

Current value:−1.07 kgCO₂/m² p.a.

Target path:−1.18 kgCO₂/m² p.a.

=91 %

Category

Emission reduction

Sector

Buildings

Annual final energy demand of buildings

too slow

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −18.9 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −12.1 TWh per year.

Current value:−12.1 TWh p.a.

Target path:−18.9 TWh p.a.

=64 %

Category

Efficiency and lifestyle

Sector

Buildings

Share of renewables in the buildings sector

too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 1.31 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 1.19 %-point per year.

Current value:1.19 %-point p.a.

Target path:1.31 %-point p.a.

=91 %

Category

Renewable ramp-up

Sector

Buildings

Heat pump sales per year

too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 84 thousands annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 75 thousands per year.

Current value:75 thousands p.a.

Target path:84 thousands p.a.

=88 %

Category

Electrification

Sector

Buildings

Heat pumps installed

on track

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.227 millions annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 0.230 millions per year.

Current value:0.230 millions p.a.

Target path:0.227 millions p.a.

=101 %

Category

Electrification

Sector

Buildings

Electricity share in buildings final energy demand

far too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.37 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 0.05 %-point per year.

Current value:0.05 %-point p.a.

Target path:0.37 %-point p.a.

=12.6 %

Category

Electrification

Sector

Buildings

Oil and gas boiler sales per year

step back

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −56 thousands annually from 2019 to 2023. In fact, the change was 77 thousands per year.

Current value:77 thousands p.a.

Target path:−56 thousands p.a.

=−136 %

Category

Fossil phase-out

Sector

Buildings

Annual oil, coal, and gas demand in the buildings sector

too slow

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −18.4 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −14.3 TWh per year.

Current value:−14.3 TWh p.a.

Target path:−18.4 TWh p.a.

=78 %

Category

Fossil phase-out

Sector

Buildings

Share of fossil energy in buildings

too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −1.31 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −1.19 %-point per year.

Current value:−1.19 %-point p.a.

Target path:−1.31 %-point p.a.

=91 %

Category

Fossil phase-out

Sector

Buildings

Energy intensity of buildings

far too slow

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −11.2 MJ/m² annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −3.2 MJ/m² per year.

Current value:−3.2 MJ/m² p.a.

Target path:−11.2 MJ/m² p.a.

=28.8 %

Category

Efficiency and lifestyle

Sector

Buildings

Share of district heating in heat and hot water

on track

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.21 %-point annually from 2019 to 2021. The change was per year.

Current value:0.21 %-point p.a.

Target path:0.21 %-point p.a.

=100 %

Category

Infrastructure

Sector

Buildings

Annual GHG emissions of the industrial sector

on track

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −4.1 MtCO₂e annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −5.9 MtCO₂e per year.

Current value:−5.9 MtCO₂e p.a.

Target path:−4.1 MtCO₂e p.a.

=146 %

Category

Emission reduction

Sector

Industry

Emissions intensity of GDP

on track

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −0.37 tCO₂/million Euro annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −1.49 tCO₂/million Euro per year.

Current value:−1.49 tCO₂/million Euro p.a.

Target path:−0.37 tCO₂/million Euro p.a.

=409 %

Category

Emission reduction

Sector

Industry

Annual biomass demand in industry

on track

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 2.5 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was 3.5 TWh per year.

Current value:3.5 TWh p.a.

Target path:2.5 TWh p.a.

=136 %

Category

Renewable ramp-up

Sector

Industry

Project pipeline H₂-based steel production

on track

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.68 Mt annually from 2019 to 2030. In fact, the planned change was 1.46 Mt per year.

Current value:1.46 Mt p.a.

Target path:0.68 Mt p.a.

=215 %

Category

Infrastructure

Sector

Industry

Annual steel production via secondary route

step back

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.38 Mt annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −0.30 Mt per year.

Current value:−0.30 Mt p.a.

Target path:0.38 Mt p.a.

=−79 %

Category

Efficiency and lifestyle

Sector

Industry

Electricity share in the industries final energy demand

step back

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should increase by 0.05 %-point annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −0.32 %-point per year.

Current value:−0.32 %-point p.a.

Target path:0.05 %-point p.a.

=−594 %

Category

Electrification

Sector

Industry

Annual oil, coal, and gas demand in industry

on track

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −4.9 TWh annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −5.8 TWh per year.

Current value:−5.8 TWh p.a.

Target path:−4.9 TWh p.a.

=118 %

Category

Fossil phase-out

Sector

Industry

Final energy demand per unit of gross domestic product

on track

One-off effect

Energy crisis

According to the lead model target path, this indicator should decrease by −8.7 MJ/thousand Euro annually from 2019 to 2022. In fact, the change was −12.0 MJ/thousand Euro per year.

Current value:−12.0 MJ/thousand Euro p.a.

Target path:−8.7 MJ/thousand Euro p.a.

=138 %

Category

Efficiency and lifestyle

Sector

Industry

Is the German energy transition on track?

To reach climate neutrality in 2045, the German energy system needs to be transformed at an unprecedented pace. The Transformation Tracker takes a look at a variety of indicators for the progress of the energy transition (e.g. the number of e-cars or the share of renewables in the electricity mix) and compares actual data with target paths from the Ariadne scenarios.

8indicators

←step back

below 0 %

10indicators

←far too slow→

0 to 50 %

16indicators

←too slow→

50 to 95 %

13indicators

on track→

above 95 %

Legend

step back

far too slow

too slow

on track

One-off effect

Technology Mix

Balanced technology mix - achieving climate targets with a mix of direct and indirect electrification and a broad energy carrier portfolio

Ariadne scenarios

How is the assessment done?

For each indicator, we measure the progress of the transformation. To do this, we set the actual development of the indicator - latest available value (current value) minus value in the reference year 2019 (reference value) - in relation to the development of the lead model in the Ariadne target path (model value) over the same time period.

Current value−Reference value

Model value−Reference value

=progress

Examples

Assessment

An indicator is on track if it develops according to the target path or better (progress is > 95 %).

460−200

400−200

=1.3 (130 %)

Progress over time

Actual progress

Overview of indicators

Each indicator at a glance: How is the indicator developing? How does the corresponding target path in the Ariadne scenario compare to this? How is the current progress of the indicator assessed? Is it developing within the target corridor set out by all scenarios and models?

Total annual GHG emissions in Germany; these are mostly energy-related CO₂ emissions from combusting fossil fuels – primarily for electricity and heat generation – and from material use of fossils in industry.

Share of electricity as an energy source in total final energy consumption in Germany, e.g. for lighting and electrical appliances, the operation of heat pumps or for charging e-cars.

Annual demand for natural gas as a primary energy source, for example for power generation, heating, and process heat in industry.
2023 is an extrapolation on available data.

Annual final energy demand of the transport sector

too slow56 %

Actual progress

−19.3 TWh p.a.

As per target path (corridor)

−34.8 TWh p.a.

−34.8 to −32.2

Annual final energy demand of the entire German transport sector (passenger and freight transport by road, rail, water and air), in particular gasoline, diesel, kerosene and electricity.

Share of renewable energy in final energy demand of the transport sector, which includes demand of biofuels, green hydrogen, and renewable electricity in batteries and electricity-based fuels.

Share of newly registered all-electric passenger cars per year, i.e. battery electric passenger cars (BEV) and fuel cell passenger cars (FCEV), in total new registrations.
2023 is an extrapolation on available data.

Number of all-electric passenger cars in the fleet, i.e., battery electric cars (BEV) and fuel cell cars (FCEV).
2023 is an extrapolation on available data.

Share of newly registered all-electric trucks per year, i.e., battery electric trucks and fuel cell trucks, in total truck registrations.
2023 is an extrapolation on available data.

Annual GHG emissions resulting from the direct combustion of fossil fuels such as natural gas or light fuel oil in residential and commercial buildings for heating or hot water.

Annual final energy demand of the buildings sector (private households and trade, commerce and services), in particular for space heating and hot water, but also for lighting, information and communication technology, for example.

Electricity share in buildings final energy demand

far too slow13 %

Actual progress

0.05 %-point p.a.

As per target path (corridor)

0.37 %-point p.a.

0.37 to 0.77

Share of electricity in final energy demand of the buildings sector; in addition to use for lighting and electrical appliances, the use for heat pumps is becoming increasingly relevant.

Sales of oil and gas-fired heating systems per year for generating heat and hot water in the buildings sector.
2023 is an extrapolation on available data.

Share of fossil fuels, i.e. heating oil, coal and natural gas, but also the fossil-generated electricity and district heating in the final energy demand of the buildings sector.

Share of district heating in final energy demand of the buildings sector (private households and business, trade and services) for space heating and hot water.