Category Deep dive

Efficiency and lifestyle

For mitigating GHG emissions, in addition to the decarbonization of electricity generation and electrification of end-use, efficient energy use and energy savings are very important, as they make it much easier to achieve climate targets.

Some of the potential efficiency gains simply result from switching to much more efficient electricity-based technologies. For example, both e-cars and heat pumps require 3-5 times less final energy than conventional combustion processes for the same services.

Increasing efficiency is also reasonable in industry, e.g. in industrial processes (energy and material efficiency) and due to an improved circular economy that reduces energy consumption by extending the life cycle of products and relying more on recycling.

In addition, lifestyle changes and social innovations can also play an important role in climate protection. The energy transition becomes much easier if lifestyles and consumption patterns are more sustainability oriented: for example, through more frequent use of local and long-distance public transport instead of motorized private transport, a turn away from ever-increasing and increasingly unevenly distributed living space per capita, or a reduction in the consumption of animal products. This is not just about “abstention”: numerous studies have demonstrated significant benefits of such social innovations and lifestyle changes - for example, reductions in air pollution and noise pollution in cities and the benefits of reduced meat consumption for human health.

However, it is important that these lifestyle changes are enabled and encouraged by appropriate policy frameworks. This is particularly true for mobility infrastructures, such as expanding public transport services and promoting cycling.

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Annual final energy demand

145% on track Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

Annual energy demand in end-use sectors, mainly transport, industry, commerce, and households. Primary energy use in the energy industry sector is not included.

In addition to the switch to renewables, the more efficient use of energy is an essential step toward achieving climate neutrality. Total final energy demand can provide an indication of whether efficiency gains are being achieved.

Key points

  1. In addition to switching to renewables, CO₂ savings can be achieved through more efficient energy use.
  2. A significant decline in final energy demand - which would suggest efficiency gains - has not been discernible in Germany since 1990.
  3. By 2030, necessary efficiency gains can be achieved in particular in the building sector by switching to heat pumps and refurbishment, and in the transport sector by expanding electromobility.

Annual final energy demand of the transport sector

56% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix
One-off effect
Pandemic

The indicator describes the annual final energy demand of the entire transport sector, i.e. in particular the demand for petrol, diesel, kerosene and, with increasing electrification of the sector, more and more electricity. Energy demand for both passenger and freight transportation is included.

Over the past three decades, the annual final energy demand in the transport sector has remained constant. It fell significantly in the first year of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 due to the reduced mobility of people and a significant reduction in the transportation of goods. In the following years, final energy demand rose again.

Key points

  1. As can be seen in the Ariadne scenarios, a successful transformation of the transport sector goes hand in hand with a significant reduction in final energy demand.
  2. In particular, the necessary rapid direct electrification of the sector should lead to a significant reduction in final energy demand.

Share of public transport in the overall passenger service

−800% step back Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

This indicator shows the share of public transport by bus and train in the total passenger transport services.

The indicator describes one part of the mobility transition, specifically the shift from private motorized transport to local and long-distance public transport by bus and rail, which is reflected in an increase in the share of total passenger transport services.

Key points

  1. The aim is to increase the share of public transport in Germany, primarily by measures to enhance its attractiveness.
  2. In addition to a sensible avoidance of traffic, the shift from motorized individual transport to public passenger transport is an important lever for achieving the necessary GHG reductions in the transport sector.
  3. Faster electrification of the transport sector can reduce the necessary level of modal shift.

Share of motorized individual transport in the overall passenger service

−73% step back Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

This indicator shows the share of motorized individual transport (passenger cars, motorized 2- and 3-wheelers) in the total passenger transport services.

The indicator describes one part of the mobility transition - the reduction of the share of private motorized transport. This reduction, provided it includes vehicles with combustion engines, always also implies a reduction in CO₂ emissions in the sector.

Key points

  1. The modal shift, i.e., among other aspects, the shift from private motorized transport to public passenger transport, is an important lever to facilitate achieving the necessary GHG reductions in the transport sector.
  2. Faster electrification of the transport sector can reduce the necessary level of modal shift.

Annual final energy demand of the buildings sector

64% too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

Annual final energy demand of the buildings sector (private households and trade, commerce and services), in particular for space heating and hot water, but also for lighting, information and communication technology, for example.

Since 2015, there has been an almost constant trend in final energy demand in the buildings sector. While there has been a slight decline in final energy demand in the trade, commerce and services sector - especially during the energy crisis in 2022 - the final energy demand of private households has increased slightly.

Key points

  1. The final energy demand of the buildings sector has remained almost constant since 2015, but to achieve the climate targets, it must fall relatively quickly and significantly according to the Ariadne scenarios.
  2. Energy-efficient refurbishment, efficient new construction and more efficient heating systems (e.g. heat pumps) are the main means of reducing final energy demand for buildings.

Annual final energy demand of residential buildings per floor space

29% far too slow Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

The final annual energy demand of private households in relation to floor space serves as an indicator for the development of the energetic quality of buildings.

In recent years, an almost constant trend in final energy demand per floor space has been observed. However, the Ariadne scenarios give an indication that the specific final energy demand has to decrease significantly for target compatibility (by about -20% by 2030 and by about -50% by 2045).

Key points

  1. Final energy demand per floor space has stagnated in recent years.
  2. The Ariadne scenarios indicate a significant necessary reduction of -20% by 2030 and -50% by 2045, which is achievable through more efficient heating systems as well as an increased energetic quality of buildings.
  3. The efficiency of heat pumps can be further increased by reducing the specific final energy demand and switching to low-temperature systems.

Annual steel production via scrap-based secondary route

−120% step back Compared to the scenario Technology Mix

This indicator shows physical steel production in the secondary route (scrap-based). It is therefore also an indicator for increased circular economy.

Steel is produced in Germany predominantly in two processes: Primarily in the coal-based blast furnace route and secondarily in the scrap-based EAF (electric arc) route. Substitution of the GHG-emission-intensive blast furnace route is an important prerequisite for influencing the indicators "Oil, coal and natural gas consumption in industry" and "Energy and process-related GHG emissions of the industrial sector" in terms of target achievement.

Key points

  1. Low-CO₂ steel production is key for achieving the climate targets of the industry sector.
  2. The expansion of the secondary route is an important lever.
  3. By 2030, around 25 Mt, by 2045 40 Mt of low-CO₂ production is required according to the Ariadne target path - of which presumably around half is secondary production.

Final energy demand of the industry sector per gross domestic product

138% on track Compared to the scenario Technology Mix
One-off effect
Energy crisis

This indicator shows the final energy demand of the industrial sector measured in terms of gross domestic product. Decreasing values can indicate efficiency improvements.

This indicator is calculated as the ratio of final energy demand and gross domestic product. High values reflect high energy intensity - usually found in basic industries (high energy input, low value of the product). Decreasing values can indicate increasing energy and material efficiency or an increase in the value of the products. However, it also indicates a shift from basic industries (crude steel, basic chemicals) to further processing of products (mechanical engineering, pharmaceuticals).

Key points

  1. The indicator shows the energy intensity; it decreases as a result of higher efficiency.
  2. Decreasing energy intensity facilitates (or enables) successful transformation.
  3. “Energy efficiency first" is a central element of European and German energy policy.